Costco vs BJ’s stock came into sharp focus on September 24, 2026, when Costco closed fiscal 2026 with $303.2 billion in revenue and $20.76 in diluted EPS. Costco trades at 44.45x trailing earnings against BJ’s 20.54x, both as of the September 25 close. Yet membership fees supply 50.5% of Costco’s operating profit and 53.7% of BJ’s. You pay three times more for that fee stream at Costco.
Warehouse clubs are subscription businesses wearing a retailer’s uniform. The merchandise runs at razor-thin margins on purpose; the annual card is where the profit lives.
That makes the two US-listed pure plays unusually comparable. Same model, same economics, radically different price tags.
What did Costco’s Q4 2026 earnings report actually show?
Costco reported fiscal Q4 and full-year 2026 results on September 24, 2026, for the 52 weeks ended August 30. Net sales rose 10.1% to $297.2 billion, operating income rose 12.5% to $11.7 billion, and diluted EPS rose 13.9% to $20.76. The market barely moved: shares rose about 0.3% on the print.
The fourth quarter itself was stronger than the year. Net sales climbed 11.2% to $93.9 billion, comparable sales rose 9.4% reported and 6.7% adjusted for gas and currency, and digitally enabled comps rose 19.5%.
Membership fee income for the quarter was $1.849 billion. On the earnings call, CFO Gary Millerchip put that at “an increase of $125 million or 7.3% year over year.”
The membership base behind the number
Management reported 84.1 million paid members, up 3.8%, and 150.4 million cardholders, up 3.6%. Executive members reached 42.3 million, up 9.4% — now 50.3% of the paid base.
Renewal rates ticked higher: 92.3% in the US and Canada and 89.8% worldwide, each up 10 basis points from the prior quarter. Those are the numbers a 44x multiple is built on.
Costco vs BJ’s stock: which one is cheaper on the numbers?
BJ’s is cheaper on every standard valuation measure. At the September 25, 2026 close, Costco traded at 44.45x trailing earnings and 40.53x forward; BJ’s at 20.54x and 19.31x. Walmart, the scale comparison, sits between them at 39.13x trailing.
Here is the specification sheet. All prices and multiples are as of the September 25, 2026 close, per stockanalysis.com.
| Metric (as of Sept 25, 2026) | Costco (COST) | BJ’s (BJ) | Walmart (WMT) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Share price | $922.77 | $93.79 | $107.98 |
| Market cap | $409.03B | $11.85B | $856.69B |
| Trailing P/E | 44.45x | 20.54x | 39.13x |
| Forward P/E | 40.53x | 19.31x | 36.00x |
| Earnings yield | 2.25% | 4.87% | 2.56% |
| Dividend yield | 0.64% | None | 0.92% |
| Revenue (TTM) | $303.15B | $22.81B | $735.84B |
| Latest operating margin | 3.86% (FY26) | 4.05% (Q2 FY26) | n/a |
Note the last row. BJ’s just posted a higher operating margin than Costco’s full year — 4.05% on $6.23 billion of Q2 revenue versus Costco’s 3.86% on $303.2 billion. The premium is not being paid for profitability per dollar of sales.
How much of each company’s profit is really membership fees?
Roughly half at Costco and slightly more than half at BJ’s. Costco’s $5.9 billion of fiscal 2026 membership fees equal 50.5% of its $11.7 billion operating income. BJ’s $135.6 million of Q2 fee income equals 53.7% of its $252.4 million operating profit.
Strip the fees out and the two businesses converge almost exactly.
- Costco ex-fees: $11.7B − $5.9B = $5.8 billion of operating income on $297.2 billion of net sales — a 1.95% margin.
- BJ’s ex-fees: $252.4M − $135.6M = $116.8 million on $6.09 billion of net sales — a 1.92% margin.
- Gap: 3 basis points. On merchandise alone, these are the same business.
Which reframes the question. You are not choosing between two retailers. You are choosing between two subscription books, and pricing them.
| Membership economics | Costco (FY26) | BJ’s (Q2 FY26 annualized) |
|---|---|---|
| Membership fee income | $5.907B | $542.4M (4 × $135.6M) |
| Operating income | $11.7B | $1.01B (4 × $252.4M) |
| Fees as % of operating income | 50.5% | 53.7% |
| Paid members | 84.1M | 8.5M |
| Fee income per member | $70.24 | $63.81 |
| Market cap per paid member | $4,864 | $1,394 |
| Fee income per $10,000 of market cap | $144 | $458 |
| Locations | 939 warehouses | 267 clubs |
Costco extracts $70.24 a year per member against BJ’s $63.81 — a 10% edge, not a 250% one. The market cap per member, however, differs by 3.5x.
What does $10,000 buy you in each stock?
At these multiples, $10,000 buys $225 of annual earnings at Costco, $256 at Walmart and $487 at BJ’s. The same $10,000 buys $144 of membership fee income at Costco and $458 at BJ’s. Here is the arithmetic.
Earnings purchased per $10,000
Divide $10,000 by the trailing multiple. Costco: $10,000 ÷ 44.45 = $225. Walmart: $10,000 ÷ 39.13 = $256. BJ’s: $10,000 ÷ 20.54 = $487.
A BJ’s buyer collects 2.2x the claim on current earnings per dollar committed.
Membership fees purchased per $10,000
Divide fee income by market cap, then scale. Costco: $5.907B ÷ $409.03B = 1.44%, or $144 per $10,000. BJ’s: $542.4M ÷ $11.85B = 4.58%, or $458 per $10,000.
That is a 3.17x difference in fee yield for two businesses whose fee-dependence is within three percentage points of each other.
Cash returned while you wait
Costco’s 0.64% dividend pays $64 a year on $10,000. Walmart’s 0.92% pays $92. BJ’s pays nothing — it has no dividend. For context, the 10-year Treasury closed September 25 at 5.18% per Investrade’s market review, which is $518 on the same $10,000 with no equity risk.
That contrast has run through our recent work on dividend ETFs versus Treasuries, and it applies with more force here: neither club stock is an income instrument at today’s prices.
Is Costco’s membership engine slowing down?
Yes, on the metric that matters most. Paid member growth has decelerated for four straight quarters — 5.2%, then 4.8%, then 4.1%, then 3.8% in Q4 — even as renewal rates edged up.
Fee income growth tells the same story. Full-year membership fees rose 11.0%; Q4 alone rose 7.3%. The deceleration is what happens when a price increase finishes cycling through the base.
Management was explicit about that on the call: the “September 2024 U.S. and Canada membership fee increase accounted for less than 1% of fee growth” in the quarter. The engine is now running on mix — executive members up 9.4% to 42.3 million — not on price and not on rapid member acquisition.
Here is the skeptical read. Half of Costco’s profit comes from a subscription whose unit growth has halved in a year, and the obvious lever to re-accelerate it is another fee increase, which typically arrives every five to six years. Investors paying 44.45x are underwriting a fee hike nobody has announced.
Spending is also stepping up. Capital expenditure was $6.4 billion in fiscal 2026 and management guided to approximately $7.5 billion for fiscal 2027, with 33 new warehouses planned after 28 opened last year.
Which warehouse club stock suits which investor?
It depends on one thing: whether you are buying the fee stream or the durability of the fee stream. Costco wins on measurable quality — 92.3% US and Canada renewal, 84.1 million members, 939 warehouses. BJ’s wins on measurable price — 4.87% earnings yield, $458 of fee income per $10,000.
| Investor priority | Measurably better choice | The number behind it |
|---|---|---|
| Lowest price per dollar of earnings | BJ’s | 20.54x vs 44.45x |
| Most membership income per dollar invested | BJ’s | $458 vs $144 per $10,000 |
| Highest renewal rate disclosed | Costco | 92.3% US/Canada |
| Largest scale and store network | Costco | 939 warehouses, 84.1M members |
| Fastest recent revenue growth | BJ’s | +15.7% Q2 vs +11.2% Q4 |
| Any dividend at all | Costco or Walmart | 0.64% / 0.92% vs none |
| Geographic diversification | Costco | Global vs 22 US states |
BJ’s guided fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS to $4.60–$4.80 with comparable club sales excluding gasoline up 2.0% to 3.0% — a slower core than Costco’s 6.7% adjusted Q4 comp. Analyst consensus tracked by stockanalysis.com carries an average 12-month target of $105.80 on BJ’s, roughly 13% above the September 25 close. That is a third-party target, not ours.
The multiple-gap question recurs across sectors. We ran the same exercise on CrowdStrike versus Palo Alto Networks and on Oracle versus Adobe, where the cheaper name also converted more revenue into cash.
Frequently asked questions
Is Costco stock expensive at 44x earnings?
Relative to its peers, measurably yes. Costco’s 44.45x trailing multiple as of September 25, 2026 is 2.2x BJ’s 20.54x and above Walmart’s 39.13x, while its fiscal 2026 operating margin of 3.86% trailed BJ’s most recent quarterly 4.05%.
How much does Costco earn from membership fees?
$5.9 billion in fiscal 2026, per the September 24 earnings release — 50.5% of the company’s $11.7 billion operating income. Q4 fee income alone was $1.849 billion.
Does BJ’s pay a dividend?
No. BJ’s currently pays no dividend. Costco yields 0.64% and Walmart 0.92% at September 25 prices, both far below the 5.18% 10-year Treasury.
Why did Costco stock barely move on a Q4 beat?
EPS of $6.75 beat the $6.55 consensus, but shares rose only about 0.3%. At 44x earnings, a two-cent-per-dollar beat is already in the price; the decelerating member growth was the new information.
Which warehouse club has more members?
Costco, by an order of magnitude: 84.1 million paid members and 150.4 million cardholders versus BJ’s record 8.5 million members across 267 clubs.
What is Costco’s membership renewal rate?
92.3% in the US and Canada and 89.8% worldwide in fiscal Q4 2026, each up 10 basis points sequentially. BJ’s does not disclose a comparable figure in its quarterly release.
Is Walmart a substitute for a warehouse club stock?
Partly. Walmart owns Sam’s Club and sells Walmart+, but membership income is a much smaller slice of a $735.84 billion revenue base, so the subscription economics are diluted.
The bottom line
On price, BJ’s wins and it is not close. You buy 2.2x the earnings and 3.17x the membership fee income per dollar invested, in a business that is 53.7% fee-driven versus Costco’s 50.5% and currently runs a higher operating margin.
On quality, Costco wins, and the specific thing you are paying for is the 92.3% renewal rate and 84.1 million-member scale that make its fee stream more predictable than BJ’s.
What it depends on is concrete: if a 92.3% renewal rate and global scale are worth paying 2.2x the earnings multiple, own the premium. If they are not, the arithmetic says the cheaper fee stream is the cheaper fee stream. Neither answer changes the fact that Costco’s paid-member growth has halved in four quarters while its multiple has not.
This article is journalism, not investment advice. Do your own research before investing.
Sources
- Costco Wholesale Corporation Reports Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2026 Operating Results — September 24, 2026
- Full Transcript: Costco Wholesale Q4 2026 Earnings Call
- BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings Announces Second Quarter Fiscal 2026 Results
- stockanalysis.com — COST, BJ and WMT price and multiple data, September 25, 2026 close
- Market Review: September 25, 2026 — 10-year Treasury yield
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