Humana vs CVS stock is now a clean split between a recovery story and a value story. After CMS released the 2027 Medicare Advantage star ratings on October 8, 2026, Humana jumped 11.6% to $431.87 on October 9 and trades near 48x its 2026 earnings guidance. CVS slipped 1.9% to $86.16, near 10.8x, with a 3.1% dividend yield.
Key takeaways
- Humana says 95% of its Medicare Advantage members sit in 4-star-plus plans for 2027.
- Aetna, CVS’s insurer, fell to 69% from 81%, according to Stephens data.
- CVS’s dividend pays $309 a year on $10,000; Humana’s pays about $82.
What happened to Humana and CVS stock this week?
CMS published the 2027 Medicare Advantage star ratings late on Thursday, October 8, 2026. Humana went from laggard to leader. Aetna, the insurance arm of CVS Health, stepped down. On Friday, October 9, the market repriced both stocks within one session.
Humana closed at $431.87, up 11.56%, according to GuruFocus. CVS ended near $86.16, down 1.87%, per quote data shown by 24/7 Wall St. The S&P 500 rose 0.59% to 7,811.51 the same day.
Stars matter because plans rated 4 stars or higher earn Medicare quality bonus payments. The 2027 ratings set the bonus paid in 2028. That is why one release can swing an insurer’s market value by billions in a day.
How do the 2027 star ratings compare for Humana and Aetna?
Humana now has one of the strongest star profiles among large insurers, and Aetna has one of the weaker trends. Stephens data cited by Fierce Healthcare puts Humana at 93% of members in 4-star-plus plans, up from 20%. Aetna fell to 69% from 81%. The CMS average is 71%.
Humana’s own October 9 release claims 95%, with 42% of members in 4.5-star plans. It lists six contracts at 4.5 stars and 12 at 4.0. That is 11 more contracts at 4 stars or above than a year earlier.
Aetna’s release says “more than 69 percent” of members are in 4-star-plus plans. It did not state the prior-year figure. UnitedHealthcare, for context, dropped to 67% from 78%.
| Metric | Humana (HUM) | CVS Health (CVS) |
|---|---|---|
| Close, Oct. 9, 2026 | $431.87 (+11.56%) | $86.16 (−1.87%) |
| MA members in 4+ star plans, 2027 | 95% (company); 93% (Stephens) | 69% (company and Stephens) |
| Same metric, 2026 | 20% | 81% |
| 2026 adjusted EPS guidance | At least $9.00 | $7.90–$8.10 |
| Price / adjusted EPS guidance | ~48.0x | ~10.8x (midpoint) |
| 2026 GAAP EPS guidance | At least $6.52 | $6.84–$7.04 |
| Quarterly dividend | $0.885 | $0.665 |
| Dividend yield at Oct. 9 close | 0.82% | 3.09% |
| Next earnings date | Not yet announced | Nov. 4, 2026 |
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Is Humana or CVS stock cheaper on earnings?
CVS is far cheaper on current earnings. At $86.16, it trades at about 10.8 times the midpoint of its $7.90–$8.10 adjusted EPS guidance. Humana, at $431.87, trades at about 48 times its “at least $9.00” guidance. Investors pay roughly 4.4 times more per dollar of 2026 Humana profit.
The arithmetic is simple. $431.87 ÷ $9.00 = 47.99x. $86.16 ÷ $8.00 = 10.77x. On GAAP guidance the gap widens: $431.87 ÷ $6.52 = 66.2x for Humana, against $86.16 ÷ $6.94 = 12.4x for CVS.
Humana’s own October 9 8-K affirmed the $9.00 adjusted floor. It warned that GAAP guidance may still change while the third-quarter close is completed. GuruFocus puts Humana’s trailing P/E at 40.9x, against a five-year median of 21.43x.
Why the Humana multiple looks extreme
Humana’s 2026 earnings are depressed by its weak 2026 star year. The market is pricing 2028, when the new bonus money arrives. TD Cowen analyst Ryan Langston estimates Humana could net $3 billion or more in extra 2028 revenue, per Healthcare Dive.
For scale, $3 billion is about 7.3% of Humana’s $40.9 billion in second-quarter revenue alone. It is about 5.8% of the company’s $51.86 billion market cap, as GuruFocus listed it. Revenue is not profit, though, and the 8-K gives no dollar amount for the bonus.
What does $10,000 in each stock earn you today?
On income alone, CVS pays about 3.8 times more. A $10,000 stake in CVS collects roughly $309 a year in dividends. The same stake in Humana collects about $82. On earnings yield, CVS’s share of 2026 profit is about $929 per $10,000, versus about $208 for Humana.
Here is the worked example at the October 9, 2026 closing prices:
- Humana: $10,000 ÷ $431.87 = 23.16 shares. Dividends: 23.16 × ($0.885 × 4 = $3.54) = $82 a year. Earnings claim: 23.16 × $9.00 = $208.
- CVS: $10,000 ÷ $86.16 = 116.06 shares. Dividends: 116.06 × ($0.665 × 4 = $2.66) = $309 a year. Earnings claim: 116.06 × $8.00 = $929.
- 10-year Treasury: At 5.248% (TheStreet’s 1:35 p.m. ET snapshot on October 9), $10,000 earns about $525 a year.
That last line is the skeptical point. Humana’s 2.08% earnings yield is less than half the 10-year Treasury yield. Buyers at $431.87 are betting that 2028 profits will be much higher, not collecting anything near a bond-like return now. We made the same yield comparison for income funds in Dividend ETFs vs Treasuries.
CVS dividend dates are confirmed: the board declared $0.665 per share on September 30, 2026, payable November 2 to holders of record on October 22, per the company’s dividend release.
Does the star downgrade hurt CVS’s earnings outlook?
Not for 2026 or 2027. Star ratings released now drive bonus payments in 2028. CVS’s current guidance, raised on August 5, 2026, already calls for $7.90 to $8.10 in adjusted EPS. That compares with $7.30 to $7.50 before. Revenue guidance is at least $414.0 billion.
The same second-quarter release lifted cash flow from operations guidance to at least $11.5 billion from $9.5 billion. Its Health Care Benefits medical benefit ratio fell to 87.4% from 89.9% a year earlier.
J.P. Morgan’s Lisa Gill called the CVS and UnitedHealth step-downs manageable, Healthcare Dive reported, because their 4-star enrollment stays high relative to peers. Aetna president Steve Nelson said the company remains “confident in our ability to achieve our goal of returning to appropriate margins.”
The risk CVS holders take on
A 12-point drop to 69% still means a lower 2028 bonus pool than CVS would have earned at 81%. Neither CVS nor any analyst we found put a dollar figure on it. That unquantified hole is the main reason the stock fell while its 2026 numbers held.
Which stock fits which investor?
The choice depends on whether you want to be paid now or pay up for a 2028 rebound. CVS suits income and value buyers: a 3.1% yield and a low-teens GAAP multiple. Humana suits investors willing to own a stock priced well above current profit on the bet that the bonus lifts earnings.
| Investor goal | Better fit on the numbers | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Current dividend income | CVS | 3.09% yield vs 0.82% |
| Lowest price per dollar of 2026 profit | CVS | ~10.8x vs ~48x adjusted EPS |
| Exposure to the 2028 star bonus | Humana | 95% of members in 4-star-plus plans |
| Lower single-business concentration | CVS | Pharmacy, PBM and insurance; ~87M PBM members |
| Most good news already priced in | Humana | Stock rose 11.56% in one session |
Humana is also the more concentrated bet. Its Insurance segment benefit ratio guidance for 2026 is 92.75%, plus or minus 25 basis points, per its July 29 release. A small swing in medical costs moves its profit far more than at diversified CVS.
We saw a similar premium-versus-value split in Costco vs BJ’s and in Accenture vs Cognizant, where the cheaper stock also had the less exciting story.
Is the Humana rally a one-time payday?
Partly, by Humana’s own framing. The October 9 8-K says the company expects a one-time 2028 benefit, earmarked for one-time investments and shareholder returns. Star ratings are reset every year, and Humana’s own history shows how fast they swing: 94% in 2024, 25% in 2025, 20% in 2026.
Humana says it beat its goal of Stars revenue per member per month 10% above the peer-group median, a group that includes CVS, Centene, Elevance, HCSC and United. It gave no actual figure. Detailed 2028 guidance is not due until its fourth-quarter 2027 earnings call.
So a buyer at 48x 2026 earnings is paying today for a benefit that is two years out, undisclosed in size and not guaranteed to repeat in 2029.
What to watch next
Four dated events can change this comparison before year-end. Enrollment data will show whether higher stars draw members, and earnings will test whether 2026 guidance holds.
- October 15 – December 7, 2026: Medicare Annual Enrollment Period, the first test of whether Humana’s ratings win members.
- October 22, 2026: CVS dividend record date for the $0.665 payout, paid November 2.
- November 4, 2026, 8:00 a.m. ET: CVS third-quarter earnings call, per CVS.
- December 10, 2026: Humana’s virtual investor update, per its 8-K.
FAQ
Why did Humana stock jump on October 9, 2026?
CMS’s 2027 star ratings, released October 8, put 95% of Humana’s Medicare Advantage members in 4-star-plus plans, up from 20%. The stock closed up 11.56% at $431.87.
Why did CVS stock fall after the star ratings?
Aetna’s share of members in 4-star-plus plans fell to 69% from 81%, per Stephens data. That trims the 2028 bonus pool. CVS closed down about 1.9% at $86.16.
Is Humana or CVS stock cheaper?
CVS, by a wide margin. It trades near 10.8 times its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint, versus about 48 times for Humana, as of the October 9 close.
When do the new star ratings affect earnings?
The 2027 ratings set quality bonus payments for 2028. TD Cowen estimates Humana could gain $3 billion or more in 2028 revenue.
Which stock pays the higher dividend?
CVS. Its $0.665 quarterly dividend yields 3.09% at $86.16. Humana’s $0.885 quarterly dividend yields 0.82% at $431.87.
When does CVS report third-quarter earnings?
CVS holds its third-quarter 2026 earnings call on November 4, 2026, at 8:00 a.m. ET. Humana had not announced its date in the sources we checked.
The bottom line
On every measurable attribute available today, CVS is the cheaper stock: about 10.8x versus 48x adjusted earnings, and a 3.09% yield versus 0.82%. Humana has the better star profile by a wide margin, and that is its whole case.
What it depends on is specific. Humana’s premium only pays off if the 2028 bonus turns into durable profit and its stars hold beyond one cycle. Its own filing calls the benefit one-time. CVS only disappoints if the unquantified 2028 bonus loss proves larger than its raised 2026 guidance suggests. The Humana vs CVS stock gap is now a bet on 2028, priced in 2026.
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Sources
- Humana Form 8-K, October 9, 2026 (SEC EDGAR)
- Humana second-quarter 2026 results, July 29, 2026 (SEC EDGAR)
- CVS Health second-quarter 2026 results, August 5, 2026 (SEC EDGAR)
- Humana: 2027 CMS star ratings release
- CVS Health: Aetna 2027 star ratings release
- CVS Health: third-quarter 2026 earnings call notice
- CVS Health declares quarterly dividend, September 30, 2026
- Humana declares quarterly dividend, 2026
- Fierce Healthcare: Winners and losers in the 2027 MA star ratings
- Healthcare Dive: 2027 Medicare Advantage star ratings
- GuruFocus: Humana shares surge on star rating upgrade
- 24/7 Wall St.: Humana soars, CVS slides
- TheStreet: Stock market today, October 9, 2026
Wealth Engine researches and drafts with AI tools and checks every figure against the sources above. How we report.
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