Micron vs SanDisk comes down to one number: price per dollar of forward earnings. After Micron’s record $54.23 billion fiscal Q4 print on September 30, 2026, MU trades at roughly 7.0x annualized guided earnings versus about 9.6x for SanDisk, using September 30 closes. Micron is the cheaper memory stock on that math — but it is also the one committing $25 billion of capex in six months.
Key takeaways
- Micron’s fiscal Q4 revenue hit $54.23 billion, up 379% year over year.
- A $10,000 stake buys $1,433 of forward earnings in MU, $1,041 in SNDK.
- Micron guided fiscal 2027 first-half capital expenditures to about $25 billion.
What happened on September 30, 2026?
Micron reported fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 results after the close on September 30, 2026. Revenue was $54.23 billion, up 379% year over year and 31% sequentially. Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share came in at $33.42. Gross margin reached 87%, above the roughly 86% the company had guided.
Both lines beat the Street. LSEG consensus, as cited in coverage of the print, sat at $51.07 billion of revenue and $31.61 of adjusted EPS. That is a 6.2% revenue beat and a 5.7% earnings beat.
The full year was the bigger number. Fiscal 2026 revenue reached $133.19 billion, up 256% from $37.38 billion in fiscal 2025, with non-GAAP diluted EPS of $75.52 — an 811% increase. DRAM revenue alone crossed $100 billion, at $100.68 billion.
The after-hours reaction was muted rather than euphoric. Post-print coverage attributed the flat-to-lower tape not to the results but to the capital spending plan attached to them — the detail examined below.
Which memory stock is cheaper, Micron or SanDisk?
Micron is cheaper on forward earnings. Annualizing each company’s own next-quarter guidance and dividing by the September 30, 2026 close puts MU near 7.0x and SNDK near 9.6x. SanDisk carries roughly a 38% valuation premium on that measure, despite operating in the narrower of the two markets.
The arithmetic is deliberately simple, because it uses only company guidance rather than analyst models. Micron guided fiscal Q1 2027 non-GAAP EPS to $38.15, plus or minus $1.00. SanDisk guided its fiscal Q1 2027 non-GAAP EPS to $44 to $46.
The side-by-side numbers
| Metric | Micron (MU) | SanDisk (SNDK) |
|---|---|---|
| Close, Sept 30, 2026 | $1,065.08 | $1,729.76 |
| Market capitalization | ~$1.20 trillion | ~$254.8 billion |
| Latest quarter reported | Sept 30, 2026 | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Latest quarterly revenue | $54.23B (+379% YoY) | $8.965B (+372% YoY) |
| Latest non-GAAP EPS | $33.42 | $39.25 |
| Fiscal 2026 revenue | $133.19B | $20.25B |
| Fiscal 2026 non-GAAP EPS | $75.52 | $70.88 |
| Next-quarter EPS guidance | $38.15 ± $1.00 | $44–$46 |
| Forward P/E (annualized guide) | ~7.0x | ~9.6x |
| Trailing P/E (FY26 non-GAAP) | ~14.1x | ~24.4x |
| Latest gross margin | 87% (actual) | 83%–85% (guided) |
| Product mix | DRAM 75.6% of FY26 revenue | NAND only |
| Next report | Dec 16, 2026 (forecast) | Oct 29, 2026 (confirmed) |
One caveat matters and is easy to miss. SanDisk’s trailing figures run through a fiscal year that ended in July 2026, while Micron’s run through August 2026. In a market where NAND pricing doubled inside a year, a two-month stale denominator flatters nobody consistently — it makes SNDK’s trailing 24.4x look worse than its current run-rate deserves.
How much does the valuation gap cost you per $10,000?
At a 7.0x forward multiple, every $10,000 committed to Micron buys $1,433 of annualized forward earnings. The same $10,000 in SanDisk at 9.6x buys $1,041. The difference is $392 per year per $10,000 — a 37.7% gap in earnings purchased per dollar invested.
Here is the arithmetic, step by step, using the September 30, 2026 closes:
- Micron: guided EPS $38.15 × 4 = $152.60 annualized. $1,065.08 ÷ $152.60 = 6.98x. $10,000 ÷ 6.98 = $1,433 of forward earnings.
- SanDisk: guidance midpoint $45.00 × 4 = $180.00 annualized. $1,729.76 ÷ $180.00 = 9.61x. $10,000 ÷ 9.61 = $1,041 of forward earnings.
- Earnings yield: 14.3% for MU against 10.4% for SNDK, a 390-basis-point spread.
- Share count: $10,000 buys 9.389 MU shares or 5.781 SNDK shares, so fractional-share support is not optional at this position size.
Annualizing one quarter is crude. It is also the only method that uses no forecast beyond what each company put in writing.
Is Micron’s capex plan a reason the discount exists?
Largely, yes. Micron told investors it plans to increase fiscal 2027 capital expenditures versus prior plans. Fiscal 2026 capex was $27 billion. First-half fiscal 2027 capex is guided to about $25 billion, with the second half expected to run higher than the first. Operating expenses are set to rise roughly $2.5 billion in fiscal 2027.
That is close to a year of prior spending compressed into six months. Management framed the majority of the increase as construction capex to accelerate clean-room availability — capacity that arrives after the spending, not with it.
This is the skeptical read on a 7.0x multiple: it is not obviously a bargain, it is a cyclical business being priced for the possibility that 87% gross margins do not survive the capacity it is currently funding. Micron itself guided fiscal Q1 2027 gross margin down to roughly 86.25%, calling it the low point for the year.
SanDisk spends far less. Gross capex was 6.3% of revenue in its fiscal Q4 2026. A lighter capital model is a genuine argument for a premium multiple — it is simply not the argument most often made for the stock.
Does DRAM or NAND exposure matter more here?
It is the single biggest structural difference between the two. Micron sells both and is DRAM-weighted: DRAM was $100.68 billion of fiscal 2026 revenue, or 75.6% of the total, with NAND at $31.79 billion. SanDisk is pure NAND. Buying both is not diversification.
In Micron’s fiscal Q4, DRAM contributed $39.77 billion, roughly 73% of quarterly revenue, with average selling prices up in the high-teens percentage range sequentially. Its Core Data Center unit generated $18.0 billion, up 56% sequentially at a 90% gross margin.
NAND is not the weaker end of the trade. Micron’s data center SSD revenue alone approached $10 billion in the quarter, more than ten times the year-ago figure and over two-thirds of its total NAND revenue. SanDisk has forecast the NAND market at $300 billion in calendar 2026, rising to $500 billion in calendar 2027.
Treat that $500 billion figure as a vendor estimate from a company with 11% NAND share as of the second quarter of 2026, not as an independent forecast.
Which stock fits which investor profile?
Neither is a low-volatility holding. The honest split is by what each investor is willing to underwrite: Micron asks you to accept a very large capital program, while SanDisk asks you to accept single-product concentration and a staler set of trailing numbers.
| Investor priority | Better fit on the numbers | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Lowest price per dollar of forward earnings | Micron | ~7.0x vs ~9.6x on guided EPS |
| Lowest capital intensity | SanDisk | Gross capex 6.3% of FQ4 revenue |
| Broadest memory exposure | Micron | DRAM and NAND; DRAM 75.6% of FY26 revenue |
| Highest reported gross margin | Micron | 87% actual vs 83%–85% guided |
| Freshest disclosed financials | Micron | Reported Sept 30, 2026 vs Aug 5, 2026 |
| Largest, most liquid balance sheet | Micron | ~$1.20T market cap vs ~$254.8B |
| Nearest catalyst | SanDisk | Reports Oct 29, 2026 |
Sell-side targets exist on the Micron side and should be read as attributed opinion, not as fact. UBS maintained a Buy with a $1,625 target in a September 23, 2026 note. Baird’s Tristan Gerra raised his objective to $1,520 from $1,280 with a Buy rating, and JPMorgan held an Overweight with a $1,540 target ahead of the print.
For related valuation work on non-semiconductor names, see our breakdowns of Costco vs BJ’s on earnings multiples, XLF vs KRE after the Fed’s hike, and dividend ETFs against Treasury yields.
What to watch next
- October 27–28, 2026: FOMC meeting, with the rate decision announced October 28 at 2:00 p.m. ET. No Summary of Economic Projections at this meeting.
- October 29, 2026: SanDisk reports fiscal Q1 2027 after the close, with the call at 1:30 p.m. Pacific. This refreshes the stalest half of the comparison and tests the $44–$46 EPS guide.
- December 8–9, 2026: FOMC meeting, decision December 9, including an updated Summary of Economic Projections and dot plot.
- December 16, 2026 (forecast): Micron’s fiscal Q1 2027 report, covering the quarter ending December 3, 2026. Watch whether second-half capex lands above the $25 billion first-half figure.
Frequently asked questions
Is Micron cheaper than SanDisk right now?
On forward earnings, yes. Using each company’s own next-quarter EPS guidance annualized against September 30, 2026 closes, Micron trades near 7.0x and SanDisk near 9.6x — a roughly 38% gap in Micron’s favor.
Why did Micron stock not jump on a beat?
Coverage of the September 30, 2026 print attributed the muted after-hours reaction to the capital spending outlook. Micron guided first-half fiscal 2027 capex to about $25 billion against $27 billion for all of fiscal 2026, and said the second half would be higher still.
What is the difference between DRAM and NAND exposure?
DRAM is working memory; NAND is persistent storage. Micron sells both, with DRAM at 75.6% of fiscal 2026 revenue. SanDisk sells NAND only, so its results track a single pricing cycle.
How much of Micron’s business is data center?
Its Core Data Center Business Unit was the largest contributor in fiscal Q4 2026 at $18.0 billion, up 56% sequentially, at a 90% gross margin. Data center SSD revenue was separately reported at nearly $10 billion for the quarter.
Are these multiples comparable across the two companies?
Only approximately. The fiscal calendars differ — SanDisk’s fiscal 2026 ended in July 2026, Micron’s in August 2026 — so trailing multiples are measured over different windows. Forward multiples built from current guidance are the closer comparison.
Do share prices above $1,000 create a practical problem?
They constrain position sizing. A $10,000 allocation is 9.389 shares of MU or 5.781 shares of SNDK at September 30, 2026 prices, so a broker without fractional-share support forces meaningful rounding.
When do these two companies report next?
SanDisk reports fiscal Q1 2027 on October 29, 2026, a confirmed date. Micron’s fiscal Q1 2027 report is forecast for December 16, 2026 and had not been formally confirmed as of September 30, 2026.
The bottom line
On the measurable question — price per dollar of forward earnings — Micron wins, and not narrowly. It is about 38% cheaper on annualized guided EPS, it reports the higher gross margin, it carries both DRAM and NAND exposure, and its numbers are two months fresher.
What the discount depends on is specific, not vague: whether roughly $25 billion of first-half fiscal 2027 capex, plus a higher second half, arrives without collapsing the 87% gross margin that justifies the earnings base. Micron already guided that margin down to about 86.25% for fiscal Q1 2027.
SanDisk’s premium is not indefensible — 6.3% of revenue in gross capex is a genuinely lighter model. But investors are paying 9.6x for one product line in a market whose $500 billion 2027 sizing comes from the vendor. The cheaper stock is also, on these disclosures, the better-diversified one.
This article is journalism, not investment advice. Do your own research before investing.
Sources
- Micron Technology — Reports Record Fiscal Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year 2026 Results (September 30, 2026)
- Micron Technology — Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1, fiscal Q4 2026 press release (SEC EDGAR)
- Sandisk — Reports Fiscal Fourth Quarter 2026 Financial Results (August 5, 2026)
- Sandisk Corp — Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1, fiscal Q4 2026 press release (SEC EDGAR)
- Sandisk — To Report First Quarter Fiscal Year 2027 Results on October 29, 2026
- Federal Reserve — FOMC meeting calendars
- Quartz — Micron Q4 2026 earnings: $54.2B revenue on AI memory demand (LSEG consensus figures)
- Wall Street Horizon — Micron earnings calendar (forecast Q1 FY2027 date)
Wealth Engine researches and drafts with AI tools and checks every figure against the sources above. How we report.
Leave a Reply