Eli Lilly vs Novo Nordisk stock is now a bet on price versus growth. After Lilly’s October 29, 2026 beat, with Q3 revenue up 39% to $24.4 billion and 2026 guidance lifted to $91–92 billion, LLY traded near $1,389, about 39 times the midpoint of its 2026 EPS guidance. Novo trades near 11.7 times forward earnings. Lilly is clearly winning the business. Its stock already prices that in.
Key takeaways
- Lilly lifted 2026 revenue guidance to $91–92 billion, from $85–87 billion.
- Per $10,000 invested, Lilly buys about $256 of 2026 earnings. Novo buys about $853.
- Novo yields about 3.3% in dividends. Lilly yields about 0.5%.
What happened to Eli Lilly stock on October 29, 2026?
Lilly reported third-quarter results before the open on October 29, 2026, and raised its full-year outlook for the third time this year. Reuters reported that the stock hit a record intraday high of $1,408.34 and traded around $1,389 at midday, up 7.5% from the prior close of $1,288.30. Reuters put Lilly’s market value at about $1.2 trillion.
The earnings release shows revenue of $24.397 billion, up 39%. Mounjaro brought in $10.7 billion (+65%) and Zepbound $5.35 billion (+49%). Non-GAAP EPS came in at $7.48, against a $6.61 consensus cited by 24/7 Wall St.
Novo Nordisk’s US-listed shares barely moved. They were at $38.73 that morning, up about 1%, according to 24/7 Wall St. That leaves investors in the obesity-drug trade with a choice. They can pay a premium for the leader or a discount for the laggard.
Is Eli Lilly or Novo Nordisk stock cheaper?
Novo Nordisk is far cheaper on every standard measure. At about $1,389, Lilly trades near 39 times the $35.50 midpoint of its 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance. Stockanalysis.com lists Novo at 11.7 times forward earnings. Lilly costs 3.3 times as much per dollar of profit. Novo’s free-cash-flow yield is roughly four times higher.
| Metric | Eli Lilly (LLY) | Novo Nordisk (NVO) |
|---|---|---|
| Share price (Oct 29, 2026, intraday) | ~$1,389 | ~$38.73 |
| Forward P/E | ~39.1x (on $35.50 guidance midpoint) | 11.7x (stockanalysis.com, Oct 27) |
| Trailing P/E | 43.3x (Oct 27) | 9.9x (Oct 26) |
| Market value | ~$1.2 trillion (Oct 29) | $172.3 billion (Oct 26) |
| Free cash flow, trailing 12 months | $18.19 billion | $11.33 billion |
| FCF yield (FCF / market cap) | ~1.6% | ~6.6% |
| Annual dividend per share | $6.92 (~0.5% yield) | $1.28 (~3.3% yield) |
| 52-week price change | +55.9% (Oct 27) | -26.1% (Oct 26) |
| 5-year beta | 0.45 | 0.38 |
| Next earnings | Q4 call in January (date not set) | November 4, 2026 |
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The gap is not a pricing error. The market is pricing two very different trajectories. It is the same pattern we saw in Humana vs CVS: a premium valuation tied to execution, and a discount tied to doubts.
How much earnings does $10,000 buy in each stock?
At current prices, $10,000 in Lilly buys about $256 of expected 2026 non-GAAP earnings and $50 a year in dividends. The same $10,000 in Novo buys about $853 of forward earnings and $330 in dividends. Lilly investors give up about $597 of current earning power a year in exchange for faster growth.
Here is the arithmetic, using the prices and multiples in the table above:
- Lilly earnings: $10,000 ÷ 39.1 forward P/E = $256 of earnings per year.
- Novo earnings: $10,000 ÷ 11.73 forward P/E = $853 of earnings per year.
- Lilly dividend: $6.92 ÷ $1,389 = 0.50% × $10,000 = $50 a year.
- Novo dividend: $1.28 ÷ $38.73 = 3.30% × $10,000 = $330 a year, before Danish withholding tax on the ADR.
Put another way, Lilly’s earnings yield is about 2.6%. That is well below the 10-year Treasury yield of 4.93% shown on Investing.com’s market panel on October 29. We covered that trade-off in our equity risk premium breakdown. Owning Lilly means accepting a lower starting yield than a risk-free bond.
What growth does Lilly’s price already assume?
For Lilly to trade at a more ordinary 20 times earnings at today’s price, its EPS would need to reach about $69.45. That is 1.96 times the 2026 guidance midpoint. At 15% annual EPS growth, it takes roughly 4.8 years. At 20% a year, it takes about 3.7 years. This is arithmetic, not a forecast.
The volume story is real. According to the release, Q3 volume rose 53%. Lilly’s CFO said on the earnings call that Lilly holds about 58% of international incretin prescriptions. He said it holds about six in 10 total US obesity incretin prescriptions.
The skeptical read: price is falling fast
The same release shows realized prices down 15% worldwide. They fell 7% in the US, or 10% excluding a favorable rebate adjustment. Outside the US, they fell 29%. Lilly’s CFO said net price will remain “a headwind” in 2027.
Profit is also lagging sales. Revenue grew 39%, but non-GAAP EPS rose only 7%, to $7.48. Lilly actually cut its 2026 non-GAAP EPS range to $35.00–$36.00, from $35.50–$36.50. The company says $4.57 per share of acquired in-process R&D charges offset an operating gain. That explanation holds up. Still, buyers at 39 times earnings are paying for EPS growth that this quarter did not deliver.
Why is Novo Nordisk stock so cheap?
Novo is cheap because its growth has stalled and its prices are about to drop. In its August 4, 2026 filing, Novo guided 2026 adjusted sales and operating profit to between 0% and -6% at constant exchange rates. US list prices for Wegovy and Ozempic fall to a single $675 monthly price on January 1, 2027.
The August 6-K did contain good news. Novo raised that range from -4% to -12%, citing higher GLP-1 expectations. Q2 adjusted sales rose 7% at constant exchange rates to DKK 78.5 billion. The company also booked DKK 6.3 billion of impairments, including DKK 4.0 billion on monlunabant.
The price cut announced on February 24, 2026 is the bigger issue. NBC News reported that it cuts Wegovy’s list price by about 50% and Ozempic’s by roughly a third. List price is not net price. But the cut signals that pricing pressure in this class is structural, and that applies to Lilly too.
Is Novo a value trap?
A value trap is a low multiple on earnings that keep shrinking. At 11.7 times forward earnings, Novo is priced for decline. If its November 4 report shows its own guidance range holding, the multiple has room to stabilize. If it shows share loss accelerating, the low P/E is not much protection.
Which stock fits which investor?
Lilly suits investors who prioritize revenue momentum and market-share leadership and accept a 2.6% earnings yield. Novo suits income- and value-oriented investors who want a 3.3% dividend yield and a 6.6% free-cash-flow yield, and who can tolerate negative 2026 sales guidance. Neither is a low-risk holding at these prices.
| Investor profile | Better fit on measurable attributes | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth-focused, long horizon | Eli Lilly | +39% Q3 revenue; 2026 guide raised $5.5 billion at the midpoint |
| Income-focused | Novo Nordisk | ~3.3% dividend yield vs ~0.5% |
| Valuation-sensitive / value | Novo Nordisk | 11.7x forward P/E vs ~39x |
| Wants lowest earnings-revision risk | Eli Lilly | Three guidance raises in 2026; Novo guides 0% to -6% sales |
| Concentration-averse | Neither alone | Both depend heavily on GLP-1 pricing and policy |
One more point for multiple-driven comparisons. As our Accenture vs Cognizant analysis showed, a cheap multiple only pays off if earnings stop falling. That is the whole test for Novo.
What to watch next for Lilly and Novo
Three events could change this Eli Lilly vs Novo Nordisk stock comparison over the next three months. The first is Novo’s Q3 report on November 4, 2026. The second is Novo’s $675 list price taking effect on January 1, 2027. The third is Lilly’s 2027 guidance on its January Q4 call.
- November 4, 2026: Novo Nordisk Q3 results. The release date comes from MarketScreener’s calendar. Watch whether the 0% to -6% sales range moves.
- January 1, 2027: Novo’s US list price cuts take effect. Watch for whether Lilly matches on its list prices.
- January 2027 (date not yet announced): Lilly’s Q4 call. Lilly said full 2027 guidance comes then. Expect net price to be a stated headwind.
FAQ
Is Eli Lilly stock overvalued compared with Novo Nordisk?
On multiples, Lilly is far more expensive. It trades near 39 times its 2026 EPS guidance midpoint, while Novo trades at 11.7 times forward earnings. Whether that is “overvalued” depends on whether Lilly can roughly double EPS within four to five years.
How much did Lilly raise its 2026 guidance?
Lilly raised revenue guidance to $91–92 billion, from $85–87 billion. It lowered non-GAAP EPS guidance to $35.00–36.00, from $35.50–36.50, because of $4.57 per share in acquired in-process R&D charges.
Which pays a higher dividend, LLY or NVO?
Novo does. Its $1.28 annual ADR dividend yields about 3.3% at $38.73, compared with about 0.5% for Lilly’s $6.92 at roughly $1,389. Novo’s ADR dividend is subject to Danish withholding tax and to swings in the krone.
When does Novo Nordisk report third-quarter 2026 results?
Novo is scheduled to release Q3 2026 results on November 4, 2026, according to MarketScreener’s earnings calendar and stockanalysis.com.
Are GLP-1 drug prices falling?
Yes. Lilly’s Q3 realized prices fell 15% worldwide and 29% outside the US. Novo will cut US list prices for Wegovy and Ozempic to $675 a month starting January 1, 2027.
How big is Lilly’s obesity drug market share?
On the Q3 call, Lilly’s CFO said about six in 10 US obesity incretin prescriptions are Lilly drugs. He put its share of international incretins at about 58%.
The bottom line
Lilly is the better business by every operating number in this comparison: 39% revenue growth, 53% volume growth and the market-share lead. Novo is the cheaper stock by every valuation number: 11.7x vs ~39x earnings, a 6.6% vs 1.6% free-cash-flow yield and 3.3% vs 0.5% in dividends.
Our read is that the gap is too wide to be only about quality. Lilly’s price assumes years of rapid EPS growth even as realized prices fall double digits. Novo’s assumes its decline continues. Novo’s November 4 report decides which assumption gets tested first.
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This article is journalism, not investment advice. Do your own research before investing.
Sources
- Lilly reports third-quarter 2026 financial results (press release, Oct 29, 2026)
- Investing.com: Eli Lilly Q3 2026 earnings call transcript
- Reuters via Investing.com: Lilly’s obesity drug strength fuels record rally (Oct 29, 2026)
- 24/7 Wall St.: Eli Lilly jumps 8%; Novo Nordisk ticks up (Oct 29, 2026)
- Novo Nordisk Form 6-K, Q2 2026 and updated outlook (Aug 4, 2026)
- NBC News: Novo Nordisk to cut Wegovy and Ozempic prices in 2027
- Stockanalysis.com: Eli Lilly statistics and Novo Nordisk statistics
- MarketScreener: Novo Nordisk event calendar
Wealth Engine researches and drafts with AI tools and checks every figure against the sources above. How we report.
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