Where do I find a bond ETF's duration?

On the issuer's product page, listed as effective duration with a date stamp. iShares, Vanguard and State Street publish it daily. Never use a third-party figure without checking the as-of date.

Tag: Treasury Yields

T-Bills vs Money Market Funds: 4.10% vs 3.53% After the Hike

T-bills vs money market funds is a 57 basis point question this week. The 6-month Treasury bill yielded 4.10% on September 17, 2026; Schwab’s $249 billion Value Advantage fund paid 3.53%. Bills also escape state income tax, and prime funds do not. ICI reported on September 17 that money fund assets fell $51.97 billion to $7.92 trillion in the week the Fed hiked.

What happened to money market funds this week?

Money funds shrank. The Investment Company Institute’s release of September 17, 2026 shows total assets down $51.97 billion to $7.92 trillion for the week ended September 16 — the same day the Fed raised rates. Government funds took almost all of it.

The ICI breakdown: government funds fell $47.88 billion to $6.53 trillion, prime funds fell $5.17 billion to $1.24 trillion, and tax-exempt funds added $1.07 billion to reach $150.42 billion.

Read the investor split before you read a narrative into it. Institutional assets dropped $49.88 billion. Retail dropped $2.09 billion — about 4% of the total move.

That is corporate cash management around the mid-September tax date, not households abandoning the sweep. Anyone selling you this print as a retail exodus is selling you the wrong number.

The rate backdrop

The FOMC statement of September 16, 2026 says the Committee “decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent,” on a 12-0 vote. U.S. Bank’s market commentary calls it the first increase in more than three years.

The Fed’s H.15 release for September 17, 2026 puts the federal funds effective rate at 3.88%, the 2-year Treasury at 4.67% and the 10-year at 4.94%. Cash is repricing upward, and the repricing is not uniform across products. That is where the money is.

T-bills vs money market funds: which pays more right now?

T-bills, on every maturity. H.15 secondary market rates for September 17, 2026 run from 3.83% at 4 weeks to 4.18% at one year. The two largest money funds we checked pay 3.53% and 3.46%. Bills win by 30 to 72 basis points before tax.

Vehicle	Yield (as of Sep 17, 2026)	Expense ratio	State income tax	Liquidity
4-week T-bill	3.83%	None	Exempt	Matures in 28 days
3-month T-bill	3.97%	None	Exempt	Matures in 13 weeks
6-month T-bill	4.10%	None	Exempt	Matures in 26 weeks
1-year T-bill	4.18%	None	Exempt	Matures in 52 weeks
SGOV (iShares 0-3 Month Treasury)	3.65% 30-day SEC (Sep 16); 3.90% avg YTM	0.09%	Largely exempt	Intraday
BIL (SPDR 1-3 Month T-Bill)	3.59% 30-day SEC; 3.90% avg YTM	0.1353%	Largely exempt	Intraday
SWVXX (Schwab Value Advantage, prime)	3.53% 7-day	0.34%	Taxable	Same-day
SNSXX (Schwab U.S. Treasury)	3.46% 7-day	0.34%	Largely exempt	Same-day
VUSXX (Vanguard Treasury)	3.63% 7-day SEC at 6/30/2026	0.07%	Largely exempt	Same-day

Bill yields from the Federal Reserve H.15 release; fund figures from each issuer’s product page.

One caveat that cuts against the bills. A 30-day SEC yield and a 7-day yield are both backward-looking. SGOV’s 3.65% reading, dated September 16, describes a month that was mostly pre-hike.

Its average yield to maturity — 3.90% on September 17, per the iShares fund page — is the better forward read. Money fund 7-day yields will climb too as portfolios roll. Check this table again in 30 days; today’s snapshot flatters bills.

How much does the expense ratio cost on $10,000?

Between $0 and $34 a year, and the spread is the whole argument. A Treasury bill bought at auction through TreasuryDirect carries no expense ratio at all. A 0.34% money fund charges $34 on the same $10,000 to buy substantially the same paper.

T-bill bought direct: $10,000 x 0.00% = $0
VUSXX at 0.07%: $10,000 x 0.0007 = $7.00
SGOV at 0.09%: $10,000 x 0.0009 = $9.00
BIL at 0.1353%: $10,000 x 0.001353 = $13.53
SWVXX or SNSXX at 0.34%: $10,000 x 0.0034 = $34.00

Scale it to $100,000 and the Schwab funds cost $340 a year against SGOV’s $90. Both portfolios hold short Treasury paper. The $250 difference buys you a same-day sweep and a stable $1.00 share price.

Schwab’s page notes SWVXX’s 7-day yield “reflects the effect of all applicable waivers.” Waivers can be withdrawn. An expense ratio you can only see net of a waiver is a weaker promise than a bill with no fee at all.

Does state tax change the answer?

It widens the gap, sometimes past 90 basis points. Interest on Treasury bills is exempt from state and local income tax. Income from a prime fund holding commercial paper and bank obligations generally is not. On a six-figure cash pile that is real money.

The worked example

Take $100,000 and an illustrative 9.3% state marginal rate.

In SWVXX at 3.53%: $3,530 of income. State tax at 9.3% is $328.29. Net income $3,201.71 — an after-state yield of 3.20%.

In a 6-month T-bill at 4.10%: $4,100 of income, no state tax. After-state yield stays 4.10%.

The gap is $898.29 a year, or roughly 90 basis points. Federal tax applies to both and does not change the ranking.

Two conditions attach. The exemption flows through a fund only on the portion of income from direct Treasury obligations, and California, New York and Connecticut require a fund to clear a 50% government-asset threshold at each quarter end before any of it passes through. Check your fund’s year-end tax letter, not its marketing page.

Are T-bill ETFs like SGOV and BIL a better middle ground?

For most brokerage cash, yes. SGOV holds $110.45 billion as of September 17, 2026 at a 0.09% expense ratio, with effective duration of 0.11 years. You get bill exposure, state tax treatment and intraday liquidity without managing a maturity ladder.

BIL is the older, pricier twin: $47.89 billion in assets and a 0.1353% gross expense ratio, per SSgA’s fund page. Both reported the same 3.90% average yield to maturity on September 17. Same portfolio economics, 4.5 basis points of extra cost.

On $100,000 that is $45 a year for nothing. On measurable attributes — fee, size, identical YTM — SGOV is the cheaper way to own the same thing.

The ETF wrapper has one cost bills do not: the bid-ask spread on entry and exit, and a share price that moves. A bill held to maturity pays par. An ETF you sell on a bad tick does not.

Is the 6-month bill worth locking in?

It pays you 27 basis points over the 4-week bill to give up five months of flexibility. H.15 for September 17, 2026 shows 3.83% at 4 weeks against 4.10% at 6 months and 4.18% at 12 months. The curve is upward sloping across the bill sector.

That shape says the market expects more tightening, not less. A 2-year at 4.67% against a 3.88% effective funds rate, per the same release, points the same direction.

The trade-off is mechanical. Roll 4-week bills and you capture each hike within a month. Buy the 6-month and you bank 4.10% now but sit out the next two meetings.

Money funds sit in between by construction: SWVXX carries a 34.83-day weighted average maturity and SNSXX 47.45 days, per Schwab. They reprice in weeks, not overnight. We covered how that same duration math plays out further along the curve in our look at TIPS versus nominal Treasuries and in the breakdown of what 25 basis points costs bond ETF holders.

Which cash vehicle fits which investor?

It depends on three things and only three: whether you need the money inside 30 days, whether you live in a high-tax state, and whether your broker’s sweep is a fund or a bank account. Everything else is noise.

Situation	Cheapest fit on measurable terms	Why
Emergency fund, may need it any day	Treasury money fund (VUSXX at 0.07%)	Same-day access, stable NAV, lowest fee in the group
Brokerage cash, no fixed date	SGOV at 0.09%	3.90% avg YTM, intraday trading, 0.11-year duration
Known expense in 6 months	6-month T-bill at 4.10%	Highest locked rate, no fee, matures on schedule
High state income tax	Direct bills or a Treasury-only fund	State exemption worth ~90bp at a 9.3% rate
Already parked in a 0.34% prime fund	Compare against the bill curve	Paying $340 per $100k and giving up the state exemption

Rankings reflect fee, yield and tax treatment as of September 17, 2026. Not a recommendation to buy or sell.

Frequently asked questions

Are T-bills safer than money market funds?

A bill is a direct obligation of the Treasury. A money fund is a portfolio with an expense ratio, a manager and, in prime funds, corporate credit. Government and Treasury funds narrow that gap but do not close it.

Why is SGOV’s quoted yield below the 3-month bill rate?

Because the 30-day SEC yield of 3.65%, dated September 16, 2026, looks backward over a mostly pre-hike month. Its average yield to maturity of 3.90% on September 17 is the forward-looking figure.

Do I pay federal tax on T-bill interest?

Yes. Bills are exempt from state and local income tax only. Federal tax applies to bill interest and to money fund dividends alike.

What happens if I sell a T-bill before maturity?

You take the market price, which moves with rates. The H.15 secondary market rates quoted here are exactly those prices. Held to maturity, a bill pays par regardless.

Did the September 17 ICI outflow mean investors are leaving cash?

No. Of the $51.97 billion decline, $49.88 billion was institutional. Retail funds fell $2.09 billion, leaving $3.11 trillion still parked.

Is a prime fund’s extra yield worth the extra risk?

On September 17, 2026 the prime fund SWVXX paid 3.53% against 3.46% for the Treasury-only SNSXX — seven basis points for corporate credit exposure and the loss of the state exemption. The arithmetic does not favor it in a high-tax state.

How does cash compare with dividend or bank equity exposure now?

Different risk entirely — cash has no drawdown. For how the same hike reshaped bank equity, see our comparison of XLF against KRE.

The bottom line

On September 17, 2026, direct T-bills beat every money fund we priced, on yield and on fee. The 6-month bill’s 4.10% tops SWVXX’s 3.53% by 57 basis points before tax and by roughly 90 after a 9.3% state rate.

The honest exception is liquidity. If the cash might move next week, a 0.07% Treasury money fund costs $7 per $10,000 and settles same day — a rational price for optionality.

What is not rational is 0.34% for short Treasury paper an ETF holds for 0.09%. That is the one line in the table worth acting on, and it has nothing to do with forecasting rates.

This article is journalism, not investment advice. Do your own research before investing.

Sources

September 18, 2026

TIPS vs Treasuries at 5%: The Breakeven Is 2.36%

TIPS vs Treasuries now hinges on one number: 2.36%. That is the 10-year breakeven inflation rate on September 11, 2026, per the St. Louis Fed. After the 10-year Treasury yield topped 5% on September 14 — its first time since October 2023 — nominal notes pay 4.97% and 10-year TIPS pay 2.60% real. TIPS win only if CPI averages above 2.36% for a decade. August CPI ran 3.4%.

What happened to Treasury yields on September 14, 2026?

The 10-year Treasury yield breached 5% intraday on Monday, September 14, 2026, the first time since October 2023. Treasury’s official par yield curve closed the day at 4.97%, up from 4.95% on September 10. The 30-year closed at 5.34%.

Three forces pushed it there. Brent crude climbed to $108 a barrel. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released August CPI on September 11: up 0.4% for the month, 3.4% over 12 months, with core at 2.4%.

And issuance is heavy — governments and corporations are funding spending and AI infrastructure into a market that already has too much paper.

The Federal Reserve’s own calendar puts the FOMC in session September 15–16, with a Summary of Economic Projections attached. Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle wrote that the August report “pushed market pricing of a hike to nearly 90%.” On September 8, CME FedWatch had that probability at roughly 56%.

That repricing is the entire reason the TIPS-versus-nominal question is live this week.

How does the TIPS vs Treasuries breakeven actually work?

The breakeven is the inflation rate at which TIPS and nominal Treasuries deliver identical returns. Subtract the real yield on an inflation-protected note from the nominal yield of the same maturity. Above that rate, TIPS pay more. Below it, the nominal note wins.

Treasury publishes both curves daily. On September 11, 2026, the real 10-year sat at 2.60% and the nominal 10-year at 4.96%. The gap: 2.36%.

The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis publishes the same figure as series T10YIE. It printed 2.36% on September 11, down from 2.40% on September 10.

The number that should bother you

Headline CPI is running at 3.4% right now. The bond market is pricing 2.36% average inflation for the next ten years.

That is a gap of more than a full percentage point, and it is a bet — that the current print is transitory, that oil at $108 does not stick, and that the Fed hikes hard enough to pull inflation back toward target.

Buying TIPS at a 2.36% breakeven is a wager that the market is too optimistic. Buying nominals is a wager that it is right.

Real yields are at levels most investors have never traded

The 10-year real yield moved from 2.43% on September 8 to 2.60% on September 11 — 17 basis points in four sessions. The 30-year real yield hit 3.07%. The 5-year real reached 2.38%.

Independent TIPS tracker TipsWatch, writing on September 13, called a secondary-market real yield near 2.59% “rare air,” noting it would rank among the highest real yields at auction for this maturity in two decades. A $19 billion reopening of the 10-year TIPS (CUSIP 91282CRE3, coupon 2.375%) sits on this week’s calendar.

Which TIPS ETF is cheapest: TIP vs SCHP?

SCHP, at a 0.03% expense ratio, costs one-sixth of TIP’s 0.18% for near-identical exposure. Both track broad US TIPS. TIP reports 6.30 years effective duration; SCHP reports 6.4 years. On fee alone, SCHP wins outright — but TIP’s bid-ask spread is four times tighter, which matters if you trade.

Fund	Expense ratio	Net assets	Duration	Avg. maturity	Median bid-ask spread
SCHP (Schwab US TIPS)	0.03%	$15.98B (9/11/26)	6.4 yrs (8/31/26)	7.19 yrs	0.04%
TIP (iShares TIPS Bond)	0.18%	$14.72B (9/11/26)	6.30 yrs (9/10/26)	7.13 yrs	0.01%
VTIP (Vanguard Short-Term TIPS)	0.03%	$20.5B	Short-term mandate	0–5 yr index	Not disclosed on profile page
IEF (iShares 7–10 Yr Treasury, nominal)	0.15%	$41.73B (9/11/26)	6.92 yrs (9/11/26)	8.47 yrs	0.01%

Sources: iShares and Schwab Asset Management fund pages, Vanguard advisor profile. Figures as of the dates shown.

What a 15 basis point fee gap costs on $10,000

Here is the arithmetic, using IEF’s average yield to maturity of 4.93% (as of September 11, 2026) as the gross growth assumption.

Flat balance, one year: SCHP charges $3.00. TIP charges $18.00. Gap: $15.00.
Trading cost, round trip: SCHP’s 0.04% median spread costs roughly $4.00 in and out. TIP’s 0.01% costs about $1.00. SCHP is $3.00 worse.
Payback: The $3.00 trading disadvantage is erased by the $15.00 annual fee saving in under three months.
Ten years, compounded: $10,000 growing at 4.93% less 0.03% reaches $16,134. At 4.93% less 0.18% it reaches $15,905. Difference: $229.

That $229 is 2.3% of the original position, surrendered for no difference in exposure. On $100,000 it is $2,290.

Why does TIP show a negative 30-day SEC yield?

Because the SEC yield formula does not count inflation accruals. TIP posted a 30-day SEC yield of −0.90% on September 10, 2026. SCHP posted −0.92%. Neither fund is losing money. The metric simply excludes the principal adjustment that is the entire point of a TIPS.

This is the single most dangerous number in the inflation-protected bond category.

Screen for yield on a brokerage platform and TIPS funds sort to the bottom of the list, below money market funds, below everything. An investor comparing TIP’s −0.90% to IEF’s 4.63% SEC yield and concluding that nominals pay 5.5 points more has been misled by an accounting convention.

The number to use instead is real yield. TIP reported 2.35% real on September 10, 2026. That is what the portfolio earns above whatever CPI does.

The fund-level comparison is not apples to apples

IEF’s average yield to maturity was 4.93% on September 11 against TIP’s 2.35% real yield — an implied fund-level breakeven near 2.58%, wider than the 2.36% on the curve.

The difference is maturity mix. IEF carries 8.47 years weighted average maturity against TIP’s 7.13. You are not comparing the same point on the curve, and anyone quoting a clean fund-level breakeven is glossing over that.

Is TIPS vs Treasuries the right comparison for your goal?

It depends on one thing: whether your liability is nominal or inflation-linked. A fixed mortgage payment is a nominal liability — a nominal bond matches it. Retirement spending twenty years out is an inflation-linked liability, and only TIPS match that.

Investor situation	Measurable case for	Main drawback
Wants lowest cost broad TIPS exposure	SCHP at 0.03% — $3 a year per $10,000	0.04% spread, worst of the four
Trades the position frequently	TIP at a 0.01% median spread	0.18% fee, six times SCHP’s
Wants inflation protection with less rate risk	VTIP at 0.03%, short-maturity mandate	Less protection against long-horizon inflation
Believes 2.36% breakeven is too high	IEF’s 4.93% yield to maturity locks a nominal rate	Zero protection if CPI stays near 3.4%
Holding to maturity, wants no fund fee at all	Buying the TIPS directly at auction — no expense ratio	Taxable “phantom income” on accruals; no automatic reinvestment

What the Fed decision on September 16 changes

A hike is primarily a front-end event, but it moves breakevens too. If the FOMC delivers on September 16 and the market reads it as credible inflation-fighting, breakevens typically compress — which is bad for TIPS relative to nominals at the moment of the move, even though both are already priced for it.

Strategist Ed Yardeni put it directly: a move this week “would help restore the Fed’s inflation-fighting credibility and might ease some of the upward pressure on long-term yields.”

The risk runs the other way if they hold. A Fed that skips with CPI at 3.4% and oil at $108 invites the market to reprice inflation expectations upward, and breakevens widen.

Either way, both TIPS and nominal Treasuries carry the same duration risk. Neither protects you from rates rising further. TIP’s 6.30-year duration means roughly a 6.3% price decline for each additional percentage point of real yield.

TIPS vs Treasuries FAQ

What is the 10-year breakeven inflation rate right now?

2.36% as of September 11, 2026, per the St. Louis Fed’s T10YIE series. It was 2.40% on September 10 and 2.37% on September 8.

Do TIPS beat Treasuries if inflation stays at 3.4%?

Mathematically, yes — if CPI averages 3.4% for ten years, TIPS bought at a 2.36% breakeven outperform. That is a large “if” over a decade.

Why is the TIPS ETF yield negative?

The 30-day SEC yield excludes inflation principal accruals. TIP showed −0.90% and SCHP −0.92% on September 10, 2026. Use real yield instead — TIP’s was 2.35%.

Is SCHP or TIP better?

On fee, SCHP: 0.03% versus 0.18%, a $229 difference on $10,000 over ten years at a 4.93% growth assumption. On tradability, TIP: a 0.01% median spread versus SCHP’s 0.04%.

Can I buy TIPS directly instead of an ETF?

Yes, at Treasury auction or in the secondary market. There is no expense ratio. The cost is complexity: inflation accruals are taxable in the year they accrue even though you receive no cash, and you manage reinvestment yourself.

What is the current real yield on 10-year TIPS?

2.60% on September 11, 2026, per Treasury’s daily real yield curve. The 5-year real was 2.38% and the 30-year 3.07%.

Does a Fed rate hike help or hurt TIPS?

A credible hike tends to compress breakevens, which hurts TIPS relative to nominal Treasuries. It does not remove duration risk from either.

The bottom line

The measurable question has a measurable answer. At a 2.36% breakeven with headline CPI at 3.4%, the market is pricing a full point of disinflation that has not yet appeared in the data. TIPS are not expensive here on any historical read of real yields — a 2.60% 10-year real yield is among the best on offer in two decades.

The product question is simpler still. SCHP at 0.03% and TIP at 0.18% own nearly the same portfolio with nearly the same duration. Paying six times the fee buys you a tighter spread that only matters if you trade — and for a buy-and-hold position, it does not.

What it depends on: your holding period and whether your future spending is indexed. Short holding period and frequent trades, the spread dominates and TIP’s 0.01% earns its fee. Multi-year hold against inflation-linked spending, the 15 basis points compound against you and the cheaper fund wins by $229 per $10,000 per decade.

The skeptical note: both sides of this trade carry identical interest rate risk, and the marketing around inflation protection tends to obscure that. A 6.3-year duration fund loses roughly 6.3% per percentage point of real yield increase, inflation-protected or not.

This article is journalism, not investment advice. Do your own research before investing.

Sources

September 14, 2026

Fed Rate Hike Bond ETFs: What 25 Basis Points Costs You

A 25 basis point Fed rate hike would knock roughly $375 off a $10,000 TLT position, against about $3 in SGOV. That spread — not the expense ratio — is what decides outcomes for Fed rate hike bond ETFs. CME FedWatch put September odds near 66% on August 31, 2026, after the 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.80% on September 1, a 19-month high.

The Federal Open Market Committee meets September 15–16, 2026. For the first time in this cycle, the market is pricing a hike rather than a cut.

Bond ETF investors have spent two years being told fees are the thing to watch. In a repricing week, fees are noise. Duration is the signal.

What does a Fed rate hike do to bond ETFs?

A rate hike pushes yields up, and bond prices move inversely to yields. How far a fund falls is set almost entirely by its effective duration. Multiply duration by the yield change and you get the approximate percentage price move. A fund with 15 years of duration moves roughly eight times as much as one with 1.78 years.

The setup is unusual. The July 28–29 FOMC minutes, published by the Federal Reserve, show the Committee held the target range at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent on a 9–3 vote.

Three policymakers dissented in favor of tightening. The minutes state plainly: “Several participants favored an increase of 25 basis points in the target range at this meeting.”

Markets caught up fast. Tech Times reported that CME FedWatch showed roughly 65–68% odds of a September hike at the open on September 1, 2026, up from about 36% before Fed Chair Kevin Warsh spoke at Jackson Hole on August 28.

Duration is the number that matters

Effective duration estimates a fund’s price sensitivity to a parallel 1% shift in yields. It is published by every issuer and updated daily.

It is an estimate, not a promise. Yield curves rarely shift in parallel, and a hike at the front end can leave the long end untouched — or push it the other way.

Which bond ETF carries the most rate risk right now?

TLT, by a wide margin. The iShares fund page lists effective duration of 15.01 years as of August 31, 2026, against 0.12 years for SGOV. Every other major Treasury and aggregate fund sits between them. Yield to maturity rises with duration, which is the compensation investors receive for accepting that risk.

ETF	Expense ratio	Effective duration	Avg. yield to maturity	Net assets
SGOV (0–3 mo. T-bills)	0.09%	0.12 yrs	3.76%	$106.0B
SHY (1–3 yr Treasuries)	0.15%	1.78 yrs	4.33%	$25.9B
AGG (US aggregate)	0.03%	5.73 yrs	4.98%	$138.3B
IEF (7–10 yr Treasuries)	0.15%	6.94 yrs	4.69%	$41.8B
TLT (20+ yr Treasuries)	0.15%	15.01 yrs	5.29%	$47.0B

Source: iShares fund pages, figures as of August 28–31, 2026.

Note the yield ranking. AGG’s 4.98% yield to maturity beats IEF’s 4.69% with more than a year less duration, because AGG holds corporate and mortgage credit alongside Treasuries.

How much does 25 basis points cost on $10,000?

Mechanically: price impact equals duration multiplied by the yield change. On a 25 basis point rise, that is duration × 0.25%. This is a sensitivity estimate, not a forecast — it says what happens if yields move, not that they will.

Run the arithmetic on a $10,000 position, using the durations from the iShares pages above:

TLT: 15.01 × 0.25% = 3.75% → −$375
IEF: 6.94 × 0.25% = 1.74% → −$174
AGG: 5.73 × 0.25% = 1.43% → −$143
SHY: 1.78 × 0.25% = 0.45% → −$45
SGOV: 0.12 × 0.25% = 0.03% → −$3

Now compare that to the annual fee on the same $10,000. TLT’s 0.15% ratio costs $15 a year. AGG’s 0.03% costs $3.

The entire twelve-month fee difference between the cheapest and priciest fund on this list is $12. A single 25 basis point move in TLT is 31 times that.

That is the whole argument. Fee screening is a rounding error next to a duration decision, and the industry’s fee-war marketing quietly inverts the priority.

Is TLT or VGLT cheaper to hold for long Treasuries?

VGLT is cheaper on fees by a factor of five. Vanguard’s long-term Treasury ETF charges 0.03% against TLT’s 0.15%, per the issuers’ published expense ratios. On $10,000 that is $3 a year versus $15. Both track long-dated US Treasuries with no credit risk, so the fee gap is close to free money.

The catch is liquidity and size. TLT held $47.0 billion as of August 31, 2026, per iShares; VGLT held $10.6 billion, according to StockAnalysis data as of the same date.

TLT is also the options and institutional hedging vehicle, which keeps its spreads tight. For a buy-and-hold investor, that advantage is worth less than 12 basis points a year.

Here is the skeptical read: $47 billion sits in the more expensive wrapper for exposure available at one-fifth the cost. Habit and ticker recognition are expensive.

Why are investors buying long bonds into a selloff?

Because a higher yield to maturity looks like a bargain, and because falling prices attract dip buyers regardless of the macro setup. Flows have been going into the most rate-sensitive fund on the board precisely as hike odds doubled — a contrarian bet placed with maximum duration.

Bloomberg reporting carried by Yahoo Finance on August 17, 2026 showed TLT taking in $5.3 billion in the week ended August 14 — an 11.71% jump in assets in five sessions.

IEF went the other way in the same week, shedding $4.0 billion. Investors were not leaving bonds. They were moving out along the curve.

It has not worked out yet. TLT closed at $81.87 on September 1, 2026, per StockAnalysis, with a one-year total return of −1.13% including distributions.

What the curve actually looks like

The Fed’s H.15 release dated August 31, 2026 lists constant-maturity yields for August 28: 3.90% at three months, 4.34% at two years, 4.73% at ten years, and 5.22% at thirty.

By September 1 the ten-year had reached 4.80% and the two-year 4.41%, according to Trading Economics — the highest ten-year level since January 2025.

That is a steepening curve, not a flat one. The long end is repricing on inflation and term premium, not only on the funds rate.

What does duration not tell you?

Duration assumes a parallel shift and small moves. Real markets deliver neither. Five things the number leaves out, each of which can matter more than the hike itself in any given month:

Curve shape. A front-end hike can steepen or flatten the curve; TLT responds to the 20-to-30-year sector, not the funds rate.
Convexity. For large moves, duration overstates losses and understates gains.
Coupon income. TLT’s 5.29% yield to maturity accrues while you wait, offsetting price moves over time.
Term premium. Supply and fiscal risk push long yields independently of policy.
What is priced in. At 66% odds, a hike is largely in the market already; the surprise is what moves prices.

Which bond ETF fits which investor goal?

Match duration to when you need the money, not to the yield you want. The table below pairs a stated goal with the exposure whose rate risk fits it, the annual fee on $10,000, and the mechanical hit from a 25 basis point rise using the durations published above.

If your goal is…	Duration that matches	Fee per $10,000/yr	Est. hit per 25 bp	The trade-off
Cash needed inside 12 months	SGOV — 0.12 yrs	$9	−$3	Lowest yield to maturity of the group at 3.76%
Ballast without a rate bet	SHY — 1.78 yrs	$15	−$45	Costs 5x AGG for less yield
One-fund core bond sleeve	AGG — 5.73 yrs	$3	−$143	Holds credit, so not a pure Treasury hedge
Pure intermediate Treasuries	IEF — 6.94 yrs	$15	−$174	Yields less than AGG for more duration
Maximum sensitivity to rate moves	TLT — 15.01 yrs	$15	−$375	Cuts both ways; VGLT gives similar exposure for $3

Fees and durations from iShares, Vanguard and StockAnalysis, August 28–September 1, 2026. Price impacts are duration-based estimates, not forecasts.

Frequently asked questions

Do bond ETFs fall when the Fed raises rates?

Not automatically. They fall when market yields rise. If a hike is already priced — FedWatch showed roughly 66% odds on August 31, 2026 — much of the move has happened before the announcement.

Where do I find a fund’s duration?

On the issuer’s product page, listed as “effective duration” with a date stamp. iShares, Vanguard and State Street all publish it daily. Never use a third-party figure without checking the as-of date.

Is SGOV really immune to rate hikes?

Close to it on price. At 0.12 years of duration, a 25 basis point move is about 3 basis points of price. Its income, however, resets with T-bill rates within weeks in either direction.

Why does TLT yield more than SGOV?

The curve is upward sloping. As of the Fed’s August 28 H.15 data, three-month bills yielded 3.90% and thirty-year bonds 5.22%. TLT’s 5.29% yield to maturity is payment for holding 15 years of duration.

What is the difference between duration and maturity?

Maturity is when the principal returns. Duration is a weighted measure of when all cash flows arrive, and it is what determines price sensitivity. TLT holds bonds maturing in 20-plus years but has 15.01 years of duration because coupons arrive sooner.

When is the next Fed decision?

The FOMC meets September 15–16, 2026, with the statement due the afternoon of September 16. The current target range is 3.50%–3.75%, held there at the July 28–29 meeting on a 9–3 vote.

Does a longer holding period cancel out duration risk?

Partly. Over a horizon near a fund’s duration, higher reinvested coupon income roughly offsets the initial price loss. That is arithmetic, not a guarantee, and it only holds if you do not sell into the drawdown.

The bottom line

On the measurable question — which fund is most exposed to the September 16 decision — the answer is TLT, and it is not close. Fifteen years of duration against SGOV’s 0.12 is a 125-fold difference in rate sensitivity.

On cost, VGLT wins the long-Treasury comparison outright: same government-only exposure, 0.03% versus 0.15%, $12 a year saved per $10,000. The only reason to pay TLT’s premium is if you trade its options or need institutional-scale liquidity.

And the framing most retail screens use is backwards. It depends on your holding period and your need for the money on a specific date — not on which fund shaved a basis point off its fee last quarter.

With the ten-year at 4.80% on September 1, 2026 and hike odds near two-thirds, the duration number on your fund page is the only figure worth checking before the sixteenth.

Related reading on Wealth Engine: SPY vs VOO vs IVV: which S&P 500 ETF is cheapest in 2026 and DeFi yield vs Treasury bills.

This article is journalism, not investment advice. Do your own research before investing.

Sources

September 1, 2026